Why Northern Powerbrokers Are Breaking Ranks with Tinubu Ahead of 2027

Tensions Rise Between Tinubu and Northern Political Elites Ahead of 2027 Elections

Abuja, Nigeria – April 21, 2025 — As Nigeria edges closer to the 2027 presidential election, signs of political friction are emerging between President Bola Tinubu and influential figures in Northern Nigeria. A combination of policy decisions, perceived marginalization, and strategic political maneuvering is contributing to what many analysts see as a brewing realignment of political alliances.

Here are six key factors fueling the growing discontent:

1. Allegations of Marginalization in Federal Appointments
Northern political leaders have voiced dissatisfaction over what they describe as an imbalance in key federal appointments. Strategic positions—including the Petroleum Minister, Finance Minister, and Chief Justice of Nigeria—are reportedly dominated by individuals from the South-West, particularly of Yoruba descent. Critics argue this concentration fails to reflect the North’s pivotal support during the 2023 elections. Eyes of Lagos reports that the issue has become a flashpoint for resentment.

2. Economic Policies with Uneven Impact
President Tinubu’s economic reforms, such as the removal of fuel subsidies and proposed tax adjustments, have sparked significant criticism, particularly from northern communities. These changes have led to rising living costs, disproportionately affecting the North’s economically vulnerable populations. The Northern Elders Forum has publicly expressed regret over backing Tinubu in 2023, lamenting that the administration’s “Renewed Hope” agenda has led instead to a deepening sense of despair.

3. Strategic Political Realignments Underway
Recent visits by prominent northern politicians to former President Muhammadu Buhari in Daura—ostensibly for Eid celebrations—are being interpreted as more than mere courtesy calls. Political analyst and former Senator Shehu Sani suggests these meetings are part of a deliberate strategy to rebuild a strong northern political bloc, potentially in opposition to Tinubu’s 2027 ambitions.

4. Growing Youth Discontent and Unrest
Rising dissatisfaction among northern youth—driven by unemployment, economic hardship, and feelings of neglect—has sparked protests and unrest across the region. Inspired by similar movements in other African countries, these demonstrations underscore the vulnerability of Tinubu’s support among young voters, who make up a sizable portion of the electorate.

5. Pushback Against Calls for Political Patience
Comments by APC National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje, urging the North to wait until 2031 for another shot at the presidency, have been met with stiff resistance. Northern political figures view such appeals as attempts to suppress legitimate aspirations and further marginalize their influence in the national power structure.

6. Centralization Concerns Fuel Regional Tensions
The relocation of key federal institutions from Abuja to Lagos has intensified accusations of regional favoritism. Northern leaders argue that these moves symbolize an ongoing centralization of power in the South-West, deepening a sense of exclusion and threatening national cohesion.

With these grievances gaining traction, political observers anticipate a turbulent road to 2027. The emerging divide between the presidency and northern elites suggests a potential reshaping of Nigeria’s political landscape, one that could significantly influence the outcome of the next general election.